From fear of AI to rally: global acceleration expected in 2026
It is expected that the push of AI, monetary easing and higher fiscal spending will lead global markets to rise around 15 percent in 2026
The IBEX 35 recorded its worst week since April, with some companies falling around 8 percent due to AI fears
The IBEX 35 opens December with doubts after the Wall Street drop and crypto collapse
Trends that dominated markets in 2025, with geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, will take a radical turn in 2026, a year of global acceleration marked by more accommodating fiscal policies, technology and fiscal stimuli
Economists refined their projections by introducing a key concept, the “escape velocity”, referring to the ability of the global economy to shake off debt pressure thanks to a new wave of technological innovation
The question is whether the powerful forces of AI can push global markets beyond the weight of debt, demographics and deglobalization
The answer is affirmative, at least in the central scenario, which translates into the recommendation to overweight equities
No fear of AI
It is undeniable that fear of an AI bubble burst has raised alarms among investors at the end of the year, with recurring doubts about large investments and the risk of speculative excesses
Against this, recent figures are dispelling these fears. Capital expenditure dedicated to AI could reach hundreds of billions of dollars in 2026, with accumulated investment forecasts until 2023 in the trillions of dollars
To make these figures generate returns, it is not only about data centers, because the AI revolution goes much further. Automation of knowledge work, humanoid robots and multimodal systems capable of integrating into industry and services
AI revenue potential could reach over a trillion dollars annually if companies capture around 10 percent of the economic value generated by task automation
This process is still in its early stages, but the consequences for investors are clear: AI will continue to be a major driver of the stock market in 2026, even more so when widespread adoption brings the economy into “escape velocity”
Around 15 percent rise for global markets
Regarding specific numbers, analysts expect global markets to rise around 15 percent in 2026
In the base scenario, the S&P 500 would reach high values, EuroStoxx 50 similar levels, and MSCI Emerging Markets medium values
The bank also recommends increasing exposure to commodities. Electrification, the rise of data centers and pressure on energy networks increase demand for industrial metals
Copper, for example, could exceed high prices per ton in a context of growing deficit. Gold remains a defensive pillar in an environment of political and monetary volatility
Unequal growth with happy ending
For the market to follow these paths, the global economy needs to perform. In this sense, the analysis remains constructive but with nuances
In the United States, GDP is expected to grow around 2 percent, with the first half slowed by tariff pressures and a weaker labor market, but a more dynamic second half thanks to rate cuts, regulatory easing and fiscal stimulus before elections
In the Eurozone, expected growth is around 1 percent, driven by improved consumption and an ambitious investment plan that will mobilize a significant part of GDP in infrastructure and defense
The central bank will keep rates stable, with inflation below target, which will give more visibility to corporate profits. If a ceasefire is confirmed between Russia and Ukraine, Europe could be one of the positive surprises of the year
Risks on the horizon
However, risks cannot be ignored, factors that could derail the optimistic scenario
First, possible disappointments from AI should be considered, with project delays or insufficient monetization of investments
Currently, a hot point is the huge investment in data centers, but if companies do not see enough returns, problems could arise
Experts also do not rule out a rebound in inflationary pressures. The central scenario is normalization to levels comfortable for central banks, but a sudden jump above 3 to 4 percent cannot be ruled out
Another structural risk is possible deterioration of trade relations between China and the United States, despite a recent truce announcement. Everything could change at any moment
